在新型城镇化的背景下，从宏观层面研究了兰州—中川城际铁路建设对区域经济发展趋势 的影响。在分析社会经济、就业人口、交通等相关要素之间因果关系的基础上，建立了城际铁路 投资对兰州经济发展趋势影响的系统动力学模型；通过收集数据，确定了模型的各子系统参数； 并利用SPSS 软件对生产总值与固定资产投资作了线性分析；对兰州市区域经济发展趋势进行了 预测，在预测结果的基础上，进行了政策情景调整仿真。结果表明：由于兰州—中川城际铁路投 资是短期非可持续的项目，因此增加铁路投资比例，虽然对区域经济起到了一定的促进作用，但 是其作用是有限的、不显著的。在以后的投资建设过程中，应该选取长期可持续的运输项目，这 样对区域经济发展将起到很好的促进作用。

Under the background of new urbanization, the impact of Lanzhou—Zhongchuan intercity railway construction on developing trend of regional economy was studied at the macro-level. Based on the analysis of the causal relationship among social economy, employment population, transportation and other related factors, a system dynamics model of the impact of intercity railway investment on Lanzhou economy trend was established. Through collecting data, the subsystem parameters of the model were de⁃ termined, and the linear analysis on GDP and investment in fixed assets was put forward by using SPSS software. The forecast of the regional economy development trend of Lanzhou was made and the policy scene adjustment simulation was carried out on the basis of the forecast results. Considering the invest⁃ ment in the intercity railway from Lanzhou to Zhongchuan is a short-term unsustainable project, the re⁃ sults show that although the increase of railway investment ratio has played a certain role in promoting the regional economy, its effect is limited and insignificant. In the future investment and construction, the long-term sustainable transport investment projects should be considered, so it can play a good role in promoting the regional economy developing.