为了科学评价大型活动结束时场馆内外行人通道网络的拥挤水平，讨论了离场观众途经场 馆出口疏散过程中的实时需求估计与路径选择问题。运用解析与随机模拟方法，提出了观众离场 实时交通需求生成与分布模型；在此基础上，建立了基于路径选择的动态用户均衡分配模型并设 计了启发式求解算法；最后，以某大型活动场馆的赛事散场为例，阐述了上述模型的应用。研究 结果表明，所建立的行人交通网络均衡模型能捕捉观众离场期间的交通需求分布以及通道瓶颈处 行人交通流密度，描述在活动结束后离场观众流量随着时间快速增加，到达峰值后逐步减少的过 程，刻画离场观众在场馆出口通行能力限制下，离场过程被延长的整个过程，并分析场馆内外行 人通道上的行人密度。

To scientifically evaluate the congest level of pedestrian traffic network inside and outside gymnasiums during the termination of special events, the audiences′ real-time traffic demand evaluation and walking route choice during evacuating gymnasium exits were investigated. Based on physical analysis and Stochastic Simulation, a traffic demand generation and distribution model for audiences′ exiting gymnasiums was developed. On this basis, a dynamic pedestrian equilibrium assignment model based on route choice and a heuristic algorithm were proposed. The model proposed was applied to the termina⁃ tion of games in large sport stadiums. The numerical results show that the model could capture the dynamic traffic demand during exiting gymnasiums and the pedestrian traffic density of channel bottle⁃ neck, describe the process that the audience volume increases rapidly to the peak and gradually decreas⁃ es and the extended process that audiences evacuate the stadium exits with traffic capacity constraints, and analyze the pedestrian density on the walkway inside and outside of gymnasiums.