在通航环境系统风险评价的实践过程中，往往面临很多不确定性因素，这使得风险评价工 作的开展面临一定的困难。为充分利用不确定性信息并克服其不利影响，将云模型和蒙特卡洛方 法引入船舶通航环境系统风险评价，构建了基于正态云模型和蒙特卡洛思想的通航环境系统风险 综合评价模型，并给出了实现方案。模型中，以正态云模型为工具实现风险评价过程中定性描述 和定量表示之间的相互转换，实现了基于云模型的通航环境系统各因素的风险评价；采用蒙特卡 洛方法得到通航环境系统风险云模型的三个关键参数。以杭州湾跨海大桥通航环境风险综合评价 为例，对所建模型的可行性和有效性进行了验证。研究表明，该模型能够作为在不确定性环境下 实现通航环境系统风险综合评价的一种有效方法。

There are some uncertainties in practical risk evaluation of navigation environment, which makes it difficult to implement the related work. To make full use of uncertainty information and over⁃ come their negative effect, the cloud model theory and Monte Carlo method were focused on and intro⁃ duced to navigation environment risk evaluation. A navigation environment risk evaluation model based on normal cloud model and Monte Carlo method was constructed and its approach steps were given. In this comprehensive model, the normal cloud model was used as a conversion tool between qualitative de⁃ scription and quantitative expression to fulfill the risk evaluation of model factors; three key parameters of this model were calculated by executing a Monte Carlo process. The feasibility and effectiveness of this comprehensive model were verified by applying it to the comprehensive risk evaluation of navigation environment of Hangzhou Bay Sea-Crossing Bridge Waters. The result shows that the proposed model could be used as an effective method to evaluate navigation environment risk in case of uncertainty.