为了提高公路工程相关技术标准编制规划过程中的针对性和实用性，通过对现有国家行业 标准的梳理与实地调研，首先运用灰色关联的TOPSIS 法对调查结果进行排序分类，得到初步修 编计划；再通过贝叶斯判别法建立预测模型，借助统计分析软件SPSS 进行分析，得到判别函数 的影响因子及其系数，构建广义的公路工程地方标准编制时序判别模型；最后，以山西省公路桥 梁现状为例，统计其近年来由超限引起的桥梁事故，并将所建模型应用于当地《桥梁承载能力设 计细则》修编计划中加以验证。计算结果表明，该项标准的修编计划为“近期”，从而验证了模 型的适用性。

In order to improve the pertinence and practicability of highway technical standard revision, the existing highway engineering technical standards in China were arranged with field research data. Firstly, the survey results were sorted using Grey Correlation TOPSIS method, so as to get the preliminary revision plan. Then, a prediction model was established based on Bayesian discriminant analysis. With the help of a professional statistic software SPSS to analyze the data, the impact factors and their indexes in the discriminate function were obtained, and a generalized discriminate timing model was built which can identify time series of local highway engineering technical standards. Finally, taking the situation of highway bridges in Shanxi Province in recent years and the statistical accidents caused by overrun as examples, the timing model was used to ＂Detailed Rules for Bearing Capacity Design of Bridges" revision plan. The result shows that the standard revision plan is for the near future, and the applicability of the timing model is verified.