基于青岛世园会（世界园艺博览会） 实践，探索一种支撑大型活动客流预测的交通预调查 方法。在参观意向调查、现状调查和类比调查3 大类调查结果的基础上，以客流规模预测为目标 导向，建立世园会交通预调查关键指标体系，并阐述各项调查的主要内容。基于面向本地常住人 口、外地一日客、外地住宿客3 类客流群体的大规模意愿调查结果，在客流分类及其出行链分析 的基础上，提出基于交通预调查的世园会意向客流规模预测方法。结合同类大型活动客流规模类 比分析，考虑可能的鼓励政策，制定世园会客流预测技术路线。研究表明：大型活动交通预调查 应以客流预测为目标制定关键调查指标体系，在此基础上开展不同群体意向客流规模预测，并通 过类比同类大型活动加以修正得到最终预测结果。

With the practice of Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition, the method of traffic pre-survey aiming to support the passenger flow forecast for large-scale activities was explored. On the basis of intention survey, present situation survey and analogy survey, the pre-survey index system was established and the main survey content were introduced with the passenger flow forecast as a guide. Sev⁃ eral intention surveys had been carried out oriented to different passenger objects which were local resi⁃ dents, nonlocal tourists for one-day trip, nonlocal tourists for accommodation. The intention passenger flow forecast method of International Horticultural Exposition was put forward according to the traffic pre-survey, based on the passenger classification and trip chain analysis. Combined with the analogy analysis of similar large-scale activities and considering possible incentives, the technical route of pas⁃ senger flow forecast on International Horticultural Exposition was studied. The study shows that the traf⁃ fic pre-survey of large-scale activities should establish the key survey index system oriented to passen⁃ ger flow forecast. The survey result could be applied to intention passenger flow forecast, and it could get the final forecast result by the check of analogy analysis.