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PDF(3719 KB)
PDF(3719 KB)
公路基础设施的空间经济影响及其滞后效应
Spatial Economic Impact of Highway Infrastructure and Its Lagging Effects
为量化公路基础设施的空间经济影响及其滞后效应,基于2016—2022年重庆市38个县域空间构造长时域、多区域研究对象,融合产业结构、空间兴趣点(Point of Interest, POI)、公路基础设施等多源数据,在时空演化、滞后度量的视角下开展县域尺度的实证案例分析。结合时空地理加权回归(Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression, GTWR)模型设计方法框架,解析公路基础设施时空演化对产业分布和用地特征的影响,并进一步在模型中引入滞后因子,探究公路基础设施对社会经济影响的滞后效应。分析结果表明,公路基础设施对于第二产业和第三产业具有积极影响,且该刺激作用在空间上呈现出核心区较强、非核心区较弱的异质性,突出公路资源驱动第二、第三产业向核心区聚集的趋势;然而,公路基础设施对第一产业在核心区呈现出抑制作用,在非核心区呈现出激励作用,说明公路资源会促进第一产业向城市外围区域转移;公路基础设施对于餐饮、金融、医疗等8类POI的聚集产生较为相似的刺激作用,呈现出核心区刺激作用显著的特征。此外,公路基础设施在时序上对第一产业表现出影响程度递减的滞后效应;而对第二产业、第三产业、8类POI的聚集表现出影响程度递增的滞后效应,且滞后的积极影响普遍在公路建设第3年后出现显著上升态势。
To quantify the spatial economic impacts of highway infrastructure and its lagging effects, this study constructs a long-term and multi-regional research framework based on data from 38 counties in Chongqing from 2016 to 2022. By integrating multi-source data including industrial structure, Points of Interest (POI), and highway infrastructure, a county-scale empirical analysis is conducted from the perspectives of spatiotemporal evolution and lag measurement. The methodological framework employs the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of highway infrastructure and analyze its effects on industrial distribution and land use characteristics. Furthermore, lagging factors are incorporated into the model to explore the lagging effect of socio-economic impacts on highway development. The results reveal that highway infrastructure exerts a positive stimulus on the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, with stronger effects observed in core areas than in peripheral ones, highlighting a trend of industrial agglomeration of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry toward core regions driven by highway resources. In contrast, highway infrastructure suppresses primary industry development in core areas while stimulating it in non-core areas, suggesting that highways facilitate the relocation of the primary industry to peripheral regions. For eight categories of POIs (e.g., catering, finance, and healthcare), highway infrastructure similarly promotes spatial agglomeration, with more pronounced effects in core areas. Moreover, the temporal analysis shows a decreasing lagging effect of highways′ impacts on the primary industry; while highways exhibit an increasing lagging effect on the secondary industry, the tertiary industry, and the eight categories of POIs, with the positive impacts becoming significantly more pronounced after the third year of highway construction.
公路基础设施 / 产业结构 / 用地特征 / 时空地理加权回归模型 / 滞后效应
highway infrastructure / industrial structure / land use characteristics / Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model / lagging effect
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