针对新能源汽车扩散研究中车辆更新与消费者约束差异结合不足的问题，本文从车辆保有结构演化视角，构建消费者异质性多智能体模型。依据收入水平和充电可及性划分4类消费者群体，将车辆更新机会设为采纳决策的前置条件，结合动态充电条件与社会网络影响，利用二元Logit模型模拟购车决策。以济南市为例，基于历史数据校准模型，并开展2025—2035年政策情景仿真。结果表明：车辆更新比例对扩散水平的影响最为明显；随着新能源汽车保有规模扩大，充电设施供需匹配的重要性逐渐上升；综合促进情景下，2035年新能源汽车渗透率较基准情景提高8.44个百分点，4类群体采纳增量为7.6~9.3个百分点，且基准采纳率越低的群体提升幅度越大。研究表明，新能源汽车推广政策的作用受车辆更新机会与群体约束差异共同制约，应结合扩散阶段统筹购置支持与充电设施供给，促进存量车辆替代。

To address the limited integration of vehicle replacement and heterogeneity in consumer constraints in research on new energy vehicle diffusion, this study develops a multi-agent-based model with heterogeneous consumers from the perspective of vehicle fleet composition dynamics. Consumers are classified into four groups based on income level and charging accessibility. Vehicle replacement opportunities are specified as a prerequisite for adoption decisions, and a binary logit model is used to simulate vehicle purchase decisions, incorporating dynamic charging conditions and social network effects. Taking Jinan as a case study, the model is calibrated against historical data, and policy scenario simulations are conducted for 2025—2035. The results show that the vehicle replacement rate has the greatest influence on diffusion among the parameters examined. As the new energy vehicle stock expands, matching charging infrastructure supply with demand becomes increasingly important. Under the integrated promotion scenario, the new energy vehicle share of the vehicle stock in 2035 is 8.44 percentage points higher than under the baseline scenario. Adoption rates among the four consumer groups increase by 7.6~9.3 percentage points, with larger gains among groups with lower baseline adoption rates. The findings indicate that the effectiveness of policies promoting new energy vehicles is jointly constrained by vehicle replacement opportunities and heterogeneity in consumer constraints. Purchase incentives and charging infrastructure provision should therefore be coordinated according to the stage of diffusion to facilitate the replacement of existing vehicles with new energy vehicles.