货运交通是中国实现“双碳”目标的关键领域之一。在社会发展和经济增长背景下，货物周转量将持续上涨，从而推高能耗及碳排放。因此，货运交通低碳转型迫在眉睫。本研究综合考虑社会经济发展、产业结构转型以及电子商务加速普及等因素的不确定性，对中国未来货物周转量进行多情景需求预测。在此基础上，构建了C³IAM/NET-Transport模型，在满足货运需求约束条件下，基于规划期内年成本最小化原则对低碳技术转型路径进行优化，同时还模拟了优化运输结构、提高能源效率、推进燃料替代等策略对中国未来货运交通能源消耗和碳排放的影响。研究发现：（1）2060年中国货物周转量将达到24万亿吨公里~60万亿吨公里；（2）各类策略将使得货运交通能源消耗与碳排放显著降低。在优化运输结构情景和提高能源效率情景下，2060年能耗由基准情景的9.0亿吨标准煤分别降至7.4亿吨标准煤和6.8亿吨标准煤，碳排放由18.5亿吨CO₂分别降至15.3亿吨CO₂和14.0亿吨CO₂；进一步推进替代燃料，有望使货运能耗和排放分别在2048年和2040年达峰，峰值分别为5.2亿吨标准煤和9.5亿吨CO₂；在深度减排情景（在替代燃料情景基础上加速清洁能源替代）下，能耗和排放分别于2035年和2030年达峰，峰值为4.4亿吨标准煤和8.5亿吨CO₂，但2060年可能仍然存在近1亿吨的CO₂排放；（3）燃料替代是降低货运碳排放的最有效方式，公路货运是减排潜力最大的领域；（4）未来货运交通主要用能将集中在电力、氢燃料、氨燃料等。本研究结果可以为中国货运交通低碳转型提供政策参考。

Freight transport is one of the key sectors for China to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Against the backdrop of social development and economic growth, freight turnover will continue to increase, leading to higher energy consumption and carbon emissions. Thus, the low-carbon transition of freight transport is urgently needed. This study comprehensively considers the uncertainty of factors such as socio-economic development, industrial structure transformation, and the accelerated proliferation of e-commerce to conduct a multi-scenario demand forecast of China′s future freight turnover. On this basis, the C³IAM/NET-Transport model is constructed. Subject to the constraints of freight demand, the model optimizes low-carbon technological transition pathways based on the principle of minimizing annualized costs over the planning horizon. At the same time, the model simulates the impact of strategies such as optimizing the transport structure, improving energy efficiency, and promoting alternative fuels on China′s future freight transport energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) China′s freight turnover will reach between 24 trillion and 60 trillion ton-kilometers by 2060. (2) Various strategies will significantly reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions in freight transport. Under the ES(Enhancing Structure) scenario and the IE(Improving Energy-efficiency) scenario, energy consumption in 2060 will decrease from 900 million tce in the BAU(Business as Usual) scenario to 740 million and 680 million tce, respectively. Meanwhile, carbon emissions drop from 1.85 billion tons of CO₂ to 1.53 billion and 1.40 billion tons of CO₂, respectively. Under the AF(Alternative Fuel) scenario, freight energy consumption and carbon emissions may peak in 2048 and 2040, respectively, with peak values of 520 million tce and 950 million tons of CO₂. Under the DR(Deep Reduction) scenario, which accelerates clean energy substitution based on the AF scenario, energy consumption and emissions will peak in 2035 and 2030 respectively, with peak values of 440 million tce and 850 million tons of CO₂. However, under the DR scenario, nearly 100 million tons of CO₂ emissions may still persist in 2060. (3) Alternative fuel is the most effective way to reduce carbon emissions from freight transport. Road freight transport is the sector with the greatest emission reduction potential. (4) In the future, the main energy sources for freight transport will be concentrated in electricity, hydrogen fuel, ammonia fuel, etc. The findings of this study can provide policy references for the low-carbon transformation of China′s freight transport.