沿海地区经济高质量发展、海洋经济与交通状况耦合协调的时空演化及影响因素

陈小红, 张夫林

交通运输研究 ›› 2026, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (2) : 13-29.

交通运输研究 ›› 2026, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (2) : 13-29. DOI: 10.16503/j.cnki.2095-9931.2026.02.002
战略与政策

沿海地区经济高质量发展、海洋经济与交通状况耦合协调的时空演化及影响因素

作者信息 +

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Coupling Coordination Among High-Quality Economic Development, Marine Economy, and Transportation Conditions in China′s Coastal Regions

  • CHEN Xiaohong 1, 2 ,  
  • ZHANG Fulin 1
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文章历史 +

摘要

在陆海统筹深入推进的背景下,厘清经济高质量发展、海洋经济与交通状况三者间的互动关系,对推动沿海区域可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于2013—2022年我国11个沿海省(区、市)面板数据,综合运用耦合协调模型与径向基神经网络,实证分析三大系统耦合协调关系的时空演化特征及其影响因素。研究发现:①沿海省(区、市)三大系统发展水平不均衡,省际差异显著:经济高质量发展综合指数与海洋经济综合发展指数稳步上升,但省际差距持续扩大;交通状况综合发展指数省际差异虽逐步缩小,但两极分化依然明显;②区域发展不协调:东部海洋经济圈各项指标显著领先,南部与北部海洋经济圈均低于整体平均水平;③沿海省(区、市)三大系统的耦合协调度整体偏低,但呈上升趋势,且省际发展差异不断扩大:广东、上海、江苏和山东达到勉强协调水平,辽宁、河北、天津、广西和海南仍处于轻度失调状态;④耦合协调水平不存在显著空间相关性,交通状况类因子在协调发展中起主导作用,海洋水产品与常住人口比值、内河航道密度和海洋生产总值占地区生产总值比重是关键影响因素。研究可为探索沿海地区经济高质量发展路径、推动陆海协同治理提供科学依据与实践参考。

Abstract

Against the background of deepening land-sea coordination, clarifying the interactive relationships among high-quality economic development, marine economy, and transportation conditions is of great significance for promoting sustainable development in coastal regions. Based on the panel data of 11 coastal provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2013 to 2022, this study empirically analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling coordination relationship among these three major systems, using a coupling coordination model and a Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network. The results show that: ① the development levels of the three systems in coastal provincial-level regions are unbalanced with significant inter-provincial disparities—the indices of high-quality economic development and marine economy have steadily increased, yet the inter-provincial gap has continued to widen; although the inter-provincial disparity in the transportation condition index has gradually narrowed, polarization remains evident; ② regional development is uncoordinated—the eastern marine economic circle significantly outperforms the others in various indicators, while both the southern and northern marine economic circles fall below the overall average level of China′s coastal regions; ③ the coupling coordination degree of coastal provincial-level regions is generally low but shows an upward trend, with continuously expanding inter-provincial disparities—Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong are in the barely coordinated stage, whereas Liaoning, Hebei, Tianjin, Guangxi, and Hainan remain in a state of mild imbalance; ④ the coupling coordination level exhibits no significant spatial correlation; transportation condition factors play a leading role in coordinated development, while the ratio of marine aquatic products to permanent resident population, inland waterway density, and the proportion of gross marine product to regional gross domestic product are the key influencing factors. This study may provide a scientific basis and practical reference for exploring high-quality economic development pathways in coastal regions and promoting coordinated land-sea governance.

关键词

沿海省(区、市) / 经济高质量发展 / 海洋经济 / 交通状况 / 耦合协调分析

Key words

coastal provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) / high-quality economic development / marine economy / transportation conditions / coupling coordination analysis

引用本文

导出引用
陈小红, 张夫林. 沿海地区经济高质量发展、海洋经济与交通状况耦合协调的时空演化及影响因素[J]. 交通运输研究. 2026, 12(2): 13-29 https://doi.org/10.16503/j.cnki.2095-9931.2026.02.002
CHEN Xiaohong, ZHANG Fulin. Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Coupling Coordination Among High-Quality Economic Development, Marine Economy, and Transportation Conditions in China′s Coastal Regions[J]. Transport Research. 2026, 12(2): 13-29 https://doi.org/10.16503/j.cnki.2095-9931.2026.02.002
中图分类号: U-9; F061.5   

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基金

国家自然科学基金地区项目(7246002)
广西哲学社会科学研究年度课题(24GLF011)
广西高校人文社会科学重点研究基地广西发展战略研究院课题(2024GDSIYB20)

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