为加快推动我国交通运输绿色低碳转型，助力“双碳”目标如期实现和美丽中国建设，构建交通运输碳排放预测模型，设置面向2035年和2060年的基准情景、“双碳”政策情景及深度减排情景，分析不同情景下交通运输碳排放变化趋势，并提出交通运输绿色低碳转型的战略与路径。研究结果表明：①随着经济社会的快速发展和工业化城镇化进程的加快，我国交通运输碳排放总量在“十五五”期间仍将保持增长趋势，须建立由能耗双控向碳排放双控全面转型新机制，健全交通运输碳排放双控工作机制；②在“双碳”政策情景下，新能源应用减排效果最为突出，要以“零排放”为愿景优化载运工具能源结构，推动交通运输与能源融合发展，打造零碳交通基础设施；③在深度减排情景下，运输结构调整在2030年前后的减排贡献占比约为22%，要加快建设绿色高效的货运体系，健全绿色出行体系；④要建设气候适应型基础设施体系，打造韧性交通设施网，保障交通运输绿色低碳转型。

To accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of transportation in China and assist in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals on schedule and building a beautiful China, a transportation carbon emission prediction model was constructed, and benchmark scenarios, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality policy scenarios, and deep emission reduction scenarios towards 2035 and 2060 were set. The changing trends of transportation carbon emissions under different scenarios were analyzed, and strategic paths for the green and low-carbon transformation of transportation were proposed. The research results show that: ① with the rapid development of economy and society and the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the total carbon emissions from transportation in China will continue to grow during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. It is necessary to establish a new mechanism for comprehensive transformation from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions, and improve the working mechanism for dual control of carbon emissions from transportation. ②Under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality policy scenarios, the application of new energy has the most prominent emission reduction effect. It is necessary to optimize the energy structure of transportation vehicles with the vision of zero emissions, promote the integrated development of transportation and energy, and build zero-carbon transportation infrastructure. ③Under the deep emission reduction scenarios, the contribution of transportation structure adjustment to emission reduction around 2030 accounts for about 22%. It is necessary to accelerate the construction of a green and efficient freight system and improve the green travel system. ④It is necessary to build a climate-adaptive infrastructure system, create a resilient transportation facility network, and ensure the green and low-carbon transformation of transportation.