公路水路数字化转型是“十五五”期间智慧交通发展的重点任务之一。针对当前公路水路数字化转型发展中存在的缺少底层逻辑分析、缺少技术路径对比、对面临的挑战分析不足等问题，在自上而下梳理支持政策的基础上，自下而上分析首批示范区域建设的实施方案；结合黄金思维圈模型，对数字化转型的目的、路径和任务进行论述，形成对公路水路数字化转型的系统认知；基于数字化转型的普遍共识，提出了V字迭代模型、五维海星象限模型、底层逻辑四步模型等3种数字化转型参考路径；采用情景分析法，对“十五五”期间公路水路数字化转型的典型场景、关键技术和面临的挑战进行探讨，并对2030年的转型发展目标进行展望。基于研究结果得出以下结论：①公路水路数字化转型的核心目的是促进行业的高质量、可持续发展，形成支持业务、产品持续改进的数字化基础，具备保持长期竞争力、可应对“灰犀牛”和“黑天鹅”挑战的能力；②3种数字化转型参考路径中，V字迭代模型适用于行业治理和政务服务的转型实施，五维海星象限模型适用于企业级数字化转型实施，底层逻辑四步模型适用于具体核心业务的数字化转型实施；③在抓住数字化转型发展机遇的同时，需前瞻性地认识到并应对好政策延续性、投资回报模式、传统业务惯性、数据资产归属、数据安全性、技术可控性等诸多挑战。

The digital transformation of highways and waterways is one of the key tasks for the development of smart transportation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. In response to the problems of lack of underlying logic analysis, lack of technological path comparison, and insufficient analysis of challenges faced in the current digital transformation and development of highways and waterways, based on a top-down review of supporting policies, this paper analyzed the implementation plan of the first batch of demonstration area construction from bottom to top. Combining the Golden Circle of Thinking model, the paper discussed the purpose, path, and tasks of digital transformation, and formed a systematic understanding of the digital transformation of highways and waterways. Based on the general consensus of digital transformation, the paper proposed three reference paths for digital transformation: V-shaped iteration model, five dimensional starfish quadrant model, and bottom logic four step model. Using the scenario analysis method, the paper explored the typical scenarios, key technologies, and challenges faced in the digital transformation of highways and waterways during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, and looked forward to the transformation and development goals by 2030. Based on the research results, the following conclusions can be drawn: ①The core purpose of digital transformation of highways and waterways is to promote high-quality and sustainable development of the industry, form a digital foundation that supports continuous improvement of business and products, and have the ability to maintain long-term competitiveness and cope with the challenges of "gray rhino" and "black swan"; ②Among the three reference paths for digital transformation, the V-shaped iteration model is suitable for the implementation of industry governance and government services transformation, the five dimensional starfish quadrant model is suitable for enterprise level digital transformation implementation, and the bottom logic four step model is suitable for the implementation of specific core business digital transformation; ③While seizing the opportunities of digital transformation, it is necessary to proactively recognize and address many challenges such as policy continuity, investment return models, traditional business inertia, data asset ownership, data security, and technological controllability.