中欧班列主通道白俄罗斯节点运输潜力分析及对策建议
戴智丞, 李得伟, 叶罗费耶夫·亚历山大·亚历山大耶维奇, 何红, 吕佳晰
交通运输研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (4) : 56-67.
中欧班列主通道白俄罗斯节点运输潜力分析及对策建议
Analysis of Transport Potential and Suggestions on Countermeasures for Belarus Node of the Main Channel of CR Express
为推进中欧班列高质量发展,解决既有研究对于中欧铁路网中白俄罗斯节点运输特征论证不充分的问题,全面分析白俄罗斯这一中欧铁路主通道节点的发展瓶颈和潜力。首先,基于宏观统计数据,采用统计分析方法、数据包络分析方法和参数预测模型,从货运量、货运车辆拥有量、机车拥有量、线路运营里程和通过能力等发展指标入手,分析白俄罗斯铁路运输在货运组织、运力资源配置等方面的时序特征和发展趋势。之后,在供给侧,从投入和产出两个维度划分宏观运营指标,并利用数据包络分析法,定量分析白俄罗斯铁路的投入冗余和产出不足情况,评估该节点的运输潜力;在需求侧,结合中欧班列既有开行数据、短期预测结果以及白俄罗斯铁路实际生产现状,分析未来可能出现运能短板的瓶颈区段。基于此,从中欧班列开行视角提出白俄罗斯铁路运营改进建议。最后,基于对白俄罗斯铁路运营现状和未来发展潜力的分析,提出我国应扩大面向白俄罗斯铁路建设投资、强化货运流程环节高效对接和共同制定统一的运输标准和程序等发展对策,为我国中欧班列开行提供保障,促进中国与欧洲国家的交流和共同发展。
In order to promote the high-quality development of CR (China Railway) Express, solve the problem of insufficient research on the transportation characteristics of the Belarus section of the China-Europe railway network, the paper comprehensively analyzed the development bottlenecks and potential of the Belarus node in the main channel of the China-Europe railway. Firstly, based on macro statistical data, the paper used statistical analysis methods, data envelopment analysis methods, and parameter prediction models to obtain development indicators such as freight volume, the number of freight vehicles and locomotives, operating mileage, and throughput capacity. Based on the above indicators, the temporal characteristics and development trends of Belarus railway transport in freight organization, capacity resource allocation and other aspects were analyzed. Subsequently, on the supply side, macro operational indicators were divided from the dimensions of input and output, and the data envelopment analysis was used to quantitatively analyze the input redundancy and output deficiency of Belarus railway, and evaluate the transport potential of the node; On the demand side, based on the existing operation data and short-term forecast results of CR Express, as well as the actual production status of Belarus railway, the bottleneck sections where there may be a shortage of transportation capacity in the future were analyzed. Based on this, suggestions for improving the operation of Belarus railway were proposed from the perspective of the operation of CR Express. Finally, based on the analysis of the current operation status and future development potential of Belarus railway, it was proposed that China should expand investment in Belarus railway construction, strengthen efficient integration of freight processes, and jointly formulate unified transport standards and procedures, so as to provide guarantees for the operation of CR Express and promote China-Europe exchanges and common development.
中欧班列 / 国际供应链 / 运输潜力 / 运力资源配置 / 数据包络分析
CR (China Railway) Express / international supply chains / transport potential / transport resource allocation / data envelopment analysis
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中欧班列的常态化运行打通了新丝绸之路的贸易通道,已成为推进国家“一带一路”倡议的重要抓手。本文依据26个中欧班列沿线国家2001~2020年的贸易数据,建立随机前沿引力模型分析中国与沿线国家的贸易效率,并分析中欧班列对贸易效率的影响,最终结合反事实模拟,利用预期贸易增长空间和极限贸易增长空间两个测度指标,分析中欧班列产生的贸易促进效应。研究结果表明:运输距离对贸易的抑制性明显,沿线国家的2020年平均出口和进口贸易效率分别为44.37%和46.04%,出口贸易效率的增速快于进口,出口贸易效率分布离散程度远小于进口;中欧班列的开通会显著提升沿线国家的贸易效率,进一步,运输距离和运输时间的缩短均能显著提升贸易效率,对进口效率的提升程度大于出口效率;同时,运输距离的缩短会降低贸易效率的波动;根据反事实模拟结果,中欧班列开通使沿线国家的预期贸易增长空间达到16.70%~45.24%,对进口贸易的促进效应大于出口贸易。最后,基于上述结论提出了相应的政策建议。
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