重型商用车各细分车型的存活曲线是研究重型商用车碳排放量的重要基础。为获得不同用途和使用场景的中国重型商用车各细分车型的存活曲线，依据《重型商用车辆燃料消耗量限值》（GB 30510—2018），提出一种新的中国重型商用车细分车型分类与存活率研究方法。首先，对我国重型商用车的细分类型的边界范畴进行定义，并验证其可行性；然后，根据汽车保有量和新车注册量，运用威布尔（Weibull）分布拟合重型商用车各细分车型的存活率曲线。结果表明，我国重型商用车各细分车型的存活规律符合国家《机动车强制报废标准规定》；基于2017年的汽车保有量，普通货车、半挂牵引车、自卸车、普通客车和城市客车的50%存活率的车龄分别约为8.5年、7.5年、8年、9.5年和8.5年，而基于2021年的汽车保有量，各车型的50%存活率的车龄分别约为9.5年、8.5年、8.5年、11年和8.5年，这说明除城市客车外，汽车技术的进步较为明显地延长了其他细分车型的使用寿命。通过与已有不同研究结果对比发现，所获得的新的各细分车型的存活率曲线能更准确地体现我国不同用途和使用场景的重型商用车的存活规律。

The survival curves of various subdivision models of HDCV(Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicles) are acknowledged as vital foundation for carbon emission assessment of HDCV. Therefore, to obtain the survival curves of different subdivisions of HDCV in China considering different purposes and usage scenarios, a creative research method for the subdivision and survival rate of HDCV models based on the national standard of Fuel Consumption Limits for Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicles (GB 30510—2018) was proposed. Firstly, the boudary categories of various subcategories of HDCV in China were defined, and their feasibility was verified. Secondly, Weibull distribution method was introduced to fit survival rate curves for each subcategory of the concerned vehicles according to the data of vehicle ownership and new registration. The research results showed that the survival rates of various subdivision models of HDVC were consistent with Regulations on Compulsory Scrapping of Motor Vehicles in China. Furthermore, on basis of the vehicles ownership in 2017, the vehicle ages with 50% survival rates for ordinary trucks, semi-trailer tractors, dump trucks, ordinary buses, and urban buses were approximately 8.5 years, 7.5 years, 8 years, 9.5 years and 8.5 years, respectively. While, for vehicles ownership in 2021, the counterparts were approximately 9.5 years, 8.5 years, 8.5 years, 11 years and 8.5 years, respectively. It means that the progress of automotive technology has significantly extended the service life of other vehicles, except for urban buses. By comparing with the existing research results, the achieved survival curves can more accurately reflect the survival patterns of HDVC with different purposes and usage scenarios in China.