为解决地铁运营延误事件因缺乏合理的结构化情景构建方法而难以形成准确有效的属性知识，来辅助应急调度处置决策、减少主观经验依赖的问题，引入EOC（Element-Object-Consequence）模型，结合人-机-环安全体系和运营延误事件特征，提出了以列车运行为主的“要素（Element）-对象（Object）-结果（Consequence）-管理与响应（Management and Response）”情景构建框架，建立了事件情景属性关联分析模型，并设计了辅助决策应用流程。在此基础上，以供电故障引起的运营延误事件为例进行情景构建应用及可视化表达，分析了属性间关联性和敏感性。最后，对新供电故障事件的延误时间进行了预测，并与实际结果进行了对比验证。结果表明，在考虑要素和对象权重相同的前提下，环境要素、线路开通年份、列车最大运营年限对供电故障事件的总关联度影响较大，而新事件的预测延误时间相比实际延误时间的误差在15%以内，验证了结构化情景构建方法在事件影响预测上的可行性。

To address the lack of a rational structured scenario construction method for managing subway operational delays, and the difficulty in establishing accurate and effective attribute knowledge to assist emergency dispatch decision-making with less reliance on subjective experience, the EOC (Element-Object-Consequence) model was introduced. Combining the human-machine-environment safety system and the characteristics of operational delay events, a scenario construction framework centered around train operations, involving elements, objects, consequences, management and response, was proposed. An event scenario attribute correlation analysis model was established, and an auxiliary decision-making application process was designed. Based on this, the application and visualization of scenario construction were demonstrated using an example of operational delays caused by power supply faults. The attribute interrelationships and sensitivity was analyzed. Finally, the delay time for new power supply fault events was predicted and compared with actual results. The results indicate that, under the assumption of equal weighting for elements and objects, environmental factors, the year of line opening, and the maximum operational lifespan of trains have significant impacts on the overall correlation of power supply fault events. The prediction error for new events' delay time is within 15% compared to the actual delay time, validating the feasibility of the structured scenario construction method for event impact prediction.