为研究夜间弹性公交的可行性及乘客群体对其运营方案的选择行为，首先使用叙述性偏好（Stated Preference, SP）调查法对夜间弹性公交进行市场潜力调查，通过设定夜间常规公交与夜间弹性公交的对比方案及夜间弹性公交的运营参数对比方案，围绕出行费用、车辆绕行时间、步行至站台时间3 个影响因素，对乘客进行选择偏好分析。然后，运用非集计模型效用理论，校正了乘客选择弹性公交的概率模型。最后，对绕行时间价值及步行时间价值进行计算，针对不同费用情况下的夜间弹性公交分别进行了最优偏移系数讨论及计算。结果表明，夜间弹性公交在参数设置恰当时具备良好的市场潜力，乘客选择率高达82.3%；乘客更倾向接受增加乘车时的绕行时间、减少步行时间的运营方案；公交的偏移系数应随着票价的改变进行调整。
Abstract
In order to study the feasibility of night flexible bus and passengers′ choice to the operating plan of night flexible bus, the Stated Preference (SP) Survey method was used to investigate the market potential of night flexible bus. By setting the comparison scheme between regular bus and flexible bus at night and the comparison plan of operating parameters for night flexible bus, the passengers were selected for preference analysis based on three factors: bus fare, bus detour time and walking time to bus stop. Then, based on the utility theory of the Disaggregate Model, the probability model of passengers choosing flexible bus was corrected. Lately, the detour time value and the walking time value were calculated and the optimal offset coefficient for the night flexible bus was discussed and calculated under different cost condition. The results show that the night flexible bus with proper parameters has good market potential and the passenger selection rate is up to 82.3%. Passengers are more inclined to accept the operating plan to increase the bus detour time and reduce the walking time. Meanwhile, the offset coefficient of the night flexible bus should be adjusted as the fare changes.
关键词
夜间弹性公交 /
SP调查 /
市场潜力 /
非集计模型 /
出行选择行为
Key words
night flexible bus /
Stated Preference(SP) Survey /
market potential /
Disaggregate Model /
travel choice behavior
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基金
住建部2017 科技计划项目（2017-K2-004）
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