基于Logistic回归的公共自行车出行特征分析 ——以福州市为例

林雨平,方捷,邱美华,黄昕

交通运输研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (3) : 14-19.

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PDF(1269 KB)
交通运输研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (3) : 14-19.
专家观点

基于Logistic回归的公共自行车出行特征分析 ——以福州市为例

  • 林雨平,方捷,邱美华,黄昕
作者信息 +

Travel Characteristics of Public Bicycle Using Logistic Regression: A Case Study of Fuzhou

  • LIN Yu-ping, FANG Jie, QIU Mei-hua and HUANG Xin
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文章历史 +

摘要

为提升公共自行车服务水平,确定公共自行车出行的主要影响因素,首先,通过设计调查 问卷,从个体属性和出行特征两方面对公共自行车使用者进行随机调查。随后,从使用者特征、出行时耗、出行距离等方面分析公共自行车出行特征。在此基础上,采用二元Logistic 回归模型 对出行特征数据进行分析,找出公共自行车出行频率影响因素。结果表明,公共自行车使用者以中、青年为主,出行主要目的为上、下班和购物。相比高收入群体,低收入群体较多选择公共自 行车出行。采用换乘模式出行的公共自行车使用者占62.5%,早晚高峰时段选择公共自行车出行比例均较高。出行距离和出行时间分别为1~4km、15~30min时,出行者更倾向于选择公共自行车出行。通过分析可知,影响出行者每周使用公共自行车出行频率的主要因素为是否拥有小汽车、出行目的和出行时耗。基于分析结果,掌握公共自行车出行规律,可为提升公共自行车的利用率提供决策依据。

Abstract

In order to improve the service level of public bicycle and understand the main influence factors of public bicycle travel, the public bicycle users were randomly investigated from aspects of individual attributes and travel characteristics by designing questionnaire. The characteristics of public bicycle travel were analyzed from the aspects of users′ characteristics, travel time and travel distance. Then, the binary logistic mode was introduced to analyze the data of travel characteristics and find out the influence fastors of public bicycle travel frequency. The results indicate that the majority of public bicycle users are middle and young people; the travel purposes of travelers are commute and shopping; the low-income groups are more likely to travel by public bicycle compared with high-income groups; 62.5% public bicycle users use the transfer mode; the times with high percentages of public bicycle travels are morning rush-hours and evening rush-hours; the travelers tend to travel by public bicycle when the travel distance is 1~4 km or the travel time is 15 ~30 minutes. It is also found that car ownership, travel pur⁃pose and travel time have significant impacts on the travel frequencies of public bicycle per week. The research results can provide support for learning the travel rules of public bicycle and improving the uti⁃ lization of public bicycle system.

关键词

城市交通 / 公共自行车 / 调查问卷 / 出行特征 / Logistic模型

Key words

urban traffic / public bicycle / questionnaire / travel characteristic / Logistic model

引用本文

导出引用
林雨平,方捷,邱美华,黄昕. 基于Logistic回归的公共自行车出行特征分析 ——以福州市为例[J]. 交通运输研究. 2017, 3(3): 14-19
LIN Yu-ping, FANG Jie, QIU Mei-hua and HUANG Xin. Travel Characteristics of Public Bicycle Using Logistic Regression: A Case Study of Fuzhou[J]. Transport Research. 2017, 3(3): 14-19

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