为使港口和腹地在“21 世纪海上丝绸之路”战略影响下能更好地整合资源，研究了海上丝 绸之路战略对港口腹地划分的具体影响。首先，分析了海上丝绸之路战略在合作联盟、产业升级 与产业转移、制度创新、海上安全方面对港口-腹地互动发展的影响。然后，利用非集计理论， 从港口腹地划分方法本身的改进和海上丝绸之路战略对港口潜在发展影响两个方面，构建改进的 Logit 模型；在考虑港口本身条件的限制、不同运输方式的特点、市场变化和政策等的影响下， 估算腹地货物在港口间的分配比率，辅助决策改善各路径上的通行能力。最后，利用算例证明 了该模型的可行性，分析了某腹地不同货物选择的运输方式和出海口，解释了港口对腹地竞争 的现象。

For the better integration of resources between the port and hinterland, the specific impact of port hinterland division under the strategy of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road was studied. Firstly, the influence of the strategy on the interaction of port and hinterland was analyzed, mainly including cooperation alliance, industrial upgrading and transformation, the innovation in port system and maritime security. Then, a promoted Logit model applying disaggregation theory was established from the aspects of improvement of port hinterland division method and the potential influence on port development by Maritime Silk Road strategy. Under the influence of port limitations, the characteristics of different transport modes, the changing of market and policy, the distribution ratio of hinterland freight between the ports was estimated to improve the traffic capacity. Finally, the feasibility of the model was proved by an example. The choice of transport mode and the port for different freight of a hinterland was analyzed, and the phenomenon of the competition of port to the hinterland was explained.