基于上海未来30 年建设全球城市的背景，首先对比全球当前四大城市（纽约、伦敦、东京 和巴黎） 在轨道交通特别是市郊铁路方面的规模与特色，随后从城市发展途径的视角对全球城市 逆城市化背景下的人口迁移、新城建设及其与轨道交通协调发展的历程进行分析，并引入ROXY 指数判定上海城市化发展阶段和趋势。最后通过对东京等全球城市在逆城市化背景下轨道交通与 新城建设协调发展的案例研究，结合全球城市轨道交通规模，设想上海未来30 年内建设为全球城 市，需具备现有全球城市在空间结构、人口分布与轨道交通方面存在的一些共同特征。在此基础 上，对上海进行模拟预测，得出上海需通过轨道交通特别是市郊铁路提前规划建设，从而引导城 市结构优化。

Considering the blueprint of Shanghai "global city" development in the next 30 years, the scale and characteristics of rail transit, particularly the suburban railway in the existing four global cities (New York, London, Tokyo, and Paris) were compared. Then, the population migration, new town construction, as well as their coordination with rail transit of each global city under the background of counter-urbanization was analyzed from the perspective of urban development. And ROXY index was introduced to assess the development stage and trends of Shanghai. Finally, case studies of urban rail transit system and new towns coordinated development during counter-urbanization in Tokyo and other global cities were studied, together with the comparison of the system scale of global cities and Shanghai. With the objective of global city development, the spatial structure, population distribution, and the scale of rail transit in Shanghai should be similar to those of global cities. Based on the simulation results, it was recommended that rail transit, particularly the suburban railway should be planned and constructed, thus to facilitate the urban structure optimization.