摘要
为了研究信息化条件下交通出行分布规律,以基于最大熵理论的目的地竞争力分布模型
(CDM) 为研究对象,从出行者对目的地选择行为这一微观角度出发,引入目的地强迫度和信息
强迫度两个参量,对CDM进行修正。通过建立无信息和有信息两种假设情景,以弹性出行和非
弹性出行两种出行目的为分类,分析出行者对不同类型出行目的地的选择过程,建立最大熵优化
模型,通过求解引入新参量后的多目标优化问题,建立CDM交通分布修正模型并进行参数估
计。利用南京市居民出行调查数据对CDM修正模型进行验证,并与传统的双约束模型进行对
比,结果显示CDM修正模型拟合误差在2%以内,精度较高。改进后的CDM修正模型不仅能够
减小拟合误差,而且能够体现出行目的地的选择行为对交通分布的影响程度,在信息化条件下能
够很好地模拟居民出行分布规律。
Abstract
In order to study trip distribution under information condition, a competing destinations mod⁃
el based on maximum entropy theory was taken as the research objective. From the microcosmic stand⁃
point of traveler′s destination choice behavior, the CDM was modified based on two new introduced pa⁃
rameters, which were trip destination forcing factor and information effecting degree. Two hypothetical
scenarios with and without information were established, compulsory trip destination and non-compulso⁃
ry trip destination were classified, travelers′ choice process of different trip destinations were analyzed
and the maximum entropy model was founded. The multi-objective optimization problem with new intro⁃
duced parameters was solved, the modified CDM trip distribution model was founded and parameters
were estimated. The modified CDM was verified by using the resident trip survey data in Nanjing and was compared to the doubly constrained distribution model. The result shows that the fitting error of the
modified CDM under 2% and is much more precise. The modified CDM not only decreases the fitting er⁃
ror but also reflects the impact of travelers′ destination choice behaviors on trip distribution. It is suit⁃
able for describing trip distribution under information condition.
关键词
城市交通 /
信息化条件 /
交通分布 /
最大熵 /
CDM修正
Key words
urban traffic /
information condition /
trip distribution /
maximum entropy /
CDM (Competing Destinations Model) modification
李春燕,叶晓飞,陈峻,孙正安.
信息化条件下CDM交通分布模型修正与验证[J]. 交通运输研究. 2015, 1(6): 58-63
LI Chun-yan,YE Xiao-fei,CHEN Jun and SUN Zheng-an.
Modification and Validation of CDM Trip Distribution Model
Under Information Condition[J]. Transport Research. 2015, 1(6): 58-63
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