为预测机场航空器碳排放量和碳达峰的可能性，探究碳减排的关键影响因素对碳排放的影响，基于运行数据的“自下而上”的计算方法，以成都双流机场为研究对象，将机场航空器未来碳排放设置为初始情景、优化情景、绿色发展情景、技术革新情景4种不同情景，然后与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合，预测未来年机场内航空器的碳排放趋势和碳达峰的可能性。经测算：2019年成都双流机场航空器碳排放量为99.6万t，从而获得各情景下初始点的碳排放量和不同机型的碳排放特征；在优化情景、绿色发展情景和技术革新情景下，均可在2035年前实现航空器碳达峰，其中技术突破情景可最早实现碳达峰且峰值最低；航空燃油碳排放系数是碳达峰最重要的影响因素。据此，机场可通过优化机场航空器地面运行、使用新型航空器等措施来践行减排政策，以顺利实现民航碳达峰。

To predict the carbon emissions of airport aircraft and the possibility of reaching the carbon peak, and to investigate the impact of key carbon reduction factors on carbon emissions, a "bottom-up" approach based on operational data was used to calculate the future carbon emissions of Chengdu Shuangliu Airport. Four different scenarios of future aircraft carbon emissions were developed, including the initial scenario, the optimization scenario, the green development scenario, and the technological innovation scenario, combined with Monte Carlo method, the carbon emission trends of aircraft in the airport and the possibility of reaching the carbon peak in the coming years were predicted. The results showed that: the aircraft carbon emissions of Chengdu Shuangliu Airport in 2019 were 996 000t, according to which, the carbon emissions at the initial point under each scenario and the carbon emission characteristics of different aircraft types were obtained; under the optimization scenario, green development scenario and technological innovation scenario, aircraft carbon peaking could be achieved by 2035, with the Technological Breakthrough Scenario achieving the earliest carbon peaking and the lowest peak; aviation fuel carbon emission factor is the most important influencing factor for carbon peaking. Therefore, airports can implement emission reduction policies in terms of optimizing airport aircraft ground operations and using new types of aircraft to successfully achieve the civil aviation carbon peaking.