为客观量化评价我国城市轨道交通新线运营前安全风险水平,提高新线风险管控能力,应用目标层次分类法构建评价指标体系;结合主观赋权法和灰色关联度理论,研究提出了一种基于加权灰色关联度的评价模型和指标计算方法;并以国内近期新开通的4条线路为例进行实证分析,得到各线路运营前安全风险水平排序。研究结果表明,新线运营前安全风险评价是多因素共同作用的结果,单纯从问题数量和范围维度无法作出客观科学的评价;新线工程质量、运营准备情况和工程完整度是影响安全风险水平的主要因素,且对风险水平的影响程度依次降低;运营接管及介入程度、试运行跑图质量两个指标对评价结果影响最大。为此,需要提高运营筹备精细化水平和试运行全过程介入深度,以控制并降低新线运营前安全风险。

In order to objectively and quantitatively evaluate the pre-operation safety risk level of new urban rail transit lines, improve the risk management and control capabilities of the new lines, the goal-level classification method was used to construct an evaluation index system. On this basis, a pre-operation safety risk evaluation model and the corresponding index calculation method for the new lines were put forward by subjective weighting and grey correlation theory. 4 newly opened domestic lines were took as examples for empirical evaluation, and the ranking of safety risk levels before operation were got. The research results show that the safety risk assessment before the operation of the new line was the result of multiple factors. It was impossible to make an objective and scientific evaluation simply from the dimensions of problem quantity and scope. The quality of the new line project, the operational readiness and the integrity of the project were the main factors affecting the level of safety risk, and the impact of each factor on the risk level was reduced in turn. The two indicators of operation takeover and intervention degree, and the quality of the trial run map had the greatest impact on the evaluation results. It was necessary to increase the level of refinement of operation preparation and the depth of intervention in the whole process of trial operation, in order to control and reduce the safety risks before the new line operation.